A THEORY OF RELIGIOUS GRIEVANCE: UNDERSTANDING THE CONFLICT IN AFGHANISTAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54561/prj1701161jKeywords:
political economy of radicalism, religious grievance, radicalization, grievance-based theory of conflict, conflict in AfghanistanAbstract
Grievances have been an important source of conflict throughout human history. In this paper, we attempt to explain the conflict in Afghanistan beyond the economic reasons – a premise that dominated the development discourse in the post-2001 period, yet had limited impact in terms of reducing violence and countering insurgency. We present a theory of ‘religious grievance’ in understanding the conflict in Afghanistan which shows how individuals resort to insurgency in response to their perceptions of discrimination, political exclusion, and perceptions of threat to religious sovereignty. The theory explains how and when religious grievance turns into political grievance to engender conflict in societies where a political interpretation of religion is dominant. The paper concludes with a discussion of how radicalism can be contained by investing in and promoting alternative moderate discourses to delegitimize radical narratives that have been used as a conflict mobilization strategy.
References
Ahady Anwar-ul-Haq, The decline of the Pashtuns in Afghanistan, Asian Survey, 1995. https://doi.org/10.2307/2645419
Ajil Ahmed, Politico-ideological violence: Zooming in on grievances, European journal of criminology, Vol 19, No. 2, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1177/1477370819896223
Alesina Alberto and Perotti Roberto, Income distribution, political instability, and investment, European Economic Review, Vol. 40, No. 6, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(95)00030-5
Ashenfelter Orley, and Plant Mark W., Nonparametric estimates of the labor-supply effects of negative income tax programs, Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 8, No. 1, Part 2, 1990.
Beath Andrew, Christia Fotini, and Enikolopov Ruben, “Winning hearts and minds through development”, Policy Research Working Papers 6129, World Bank, Washington DC, 2012.
Berman Eli, Callen Michael, Felter Joseph H., and Shapiro Jacob N., Do working men rebel? Insurgency and unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 55, No. 4, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002710393920
Bin Bayyah, Shaykh Abdallah and a group of scholars, “Open Letter to Al-Baghdadi”, The Royal Islamic Strategic Studies Centre (RISSC), September, 2014. Available at: https://rissc.jo/open-letter-to-al-baghdadi/ (accessed March, 13, 2023).
Böhnke Jan Rasmus and Zürcher Christoph, Aid, minds and hearts: The impact of aid in conflict zones, Conflict Management and Peace Science, Vol. 30, No. 5, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894213499486
Boucekkine Raouf, Desbordes Rodolphe, and Melindi-Ghidi Paolo, “Social Divisiveness and Conflicts: Grievances Matter!”, Working Paper 2019-06, Aix-Marseille School of Economics.
Bowering Gerhard, Islamic political thought: An introduction, Princeton University Press, 2015.
Buhaug Halvard, Cederman Lars-Erik, and Gleditsch Kristian Skrede, Square pegs in round holes: Inequalities, grievances, and civil war, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 58, No. 2, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12068
Cederman Lars-Erik, Weidmann Nils B., and Gleditsch Kristian Skrede, Horizontal inequalities and ethnonationalist civil war: A global comparison, American Political Science Review, Vol. 105, No. 3, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055411000207
Chevrier Jeremy, “Exploring the connections between poverty, lack of economic opportunity, and violent extremism in Sub-Saharam Africa”, USAID, Washington, DC, 2017.
Child Travers Barclay, Hearts and minds cannot be bought: Ineffective reconstruction in Afghanistan, The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, Vol. 9, No. 2, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.15355/epsj.9.2.43
Chou Tiffany, Does development assistance reduce violence? Evidence from Afghanistan, The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, Vol. 7, No. 2, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.15355/epsj.7.2.5
Collier Paul and Hoeffler Anke, “Greed and grievance in civil war”, Policy Research Working Paper 2355, The World Bank, Washington DC, 2000.
Cramer Christopher, Homo economicus goes to war: methodological individualism, rational choice and the political economy of war, World Development, Vol. 30, No. 11, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(02)00120-1
David Keen, Greed and grievance in civil war, International Affairs, Vol. 88, No. 4, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2346.2012.01100
Dávid-Barrett Elizabeth, Fazekas Mihály, Hellmann Olli, Márk Lili, and McCorley Ciara, Controlling corruption in development aid: New evidence from contract-level data, Studies in Comparative International Development, Vol. 55, No. 4, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12116-020-09315-4
Davies James C, Toward a theory of revolution, American Sociological Review, Vol. 27, No. 1, 1962.
Doosje Bertjan, Moghaddam Fathali M., Kruglanski Arie W., Arjan De Wolf, Mann Liesbeth, and Feddes Allard R., Terrorism, radicalization and de-radicalization, Current Opinion in Psychology, Vol. 11, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.copsyc.2016.06.008
Enders Walter and Hoover Gary A., The nonlinear relationship between terrorism and poverty, American Economic Review, Vol. 102, No. 3, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.3.267
Enders Walter, Hoover Gary A., and Todd Sandler, The changing nonlinear relationship between income and terrorism, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 60, No. 2, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002714535252
Eronen Oskari, PRT models in Afghanistan, Civilian Crisis Management Studies, 2008.
Fearon James D. and Laitin David D., Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war, American Political Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 1, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534
Fiedler Charlotte, “Unpacking the relationship between political institutions and conflict recurrence”, Doctoral Dissertation, University of Essex, 2019.
Fishstein Paul and Wilder Andrew, “Winning hearts and minds? Examining the relationship between Aid and Security in Afghanistan”, Feinstein International Center, Tufts University, 2012.
Fleming Sean, “Corruption costs developing countries $1.26 trillion every year-yet half of EMEA think it's acceptable”, World Economic Forum, December 9, 2019. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/12/corruption-global-problem-statistics-cost/ (accessed March 14, 2023).
Ghani Ashraf, “The Folly of Quick Action in Afghanistan”, in: Anthropologists in the Public Sphere: Speaking Out on War, Peace, and American Power, Roberto J. Gonzalez (ed.), University of Texas Press. Austin, 2004.
Graff Corinne, “Poverty, Development, and Violent Expremism in Weak States”, in: Confronting poverty: weak States and US national security, Susan E. Rice, Corinne Graff, and Carlos Pascual (eds.), Brookings Institution Press, 2010.
Grossman Herschell I., A general equilibrium model of insurrections, The American Economic Review, Vol. 81, No. 4, 1991.
Gurr Ted R., Why men rebel, Routledge, 2015.
Habibzada Jamshed, “Two young men and an adolescent tell their stories on why they wanted to execute suicide attacks” (Title translated from Farsi), Radio Azadi (Radio Liberty), January 16, 2015. Available at: https://da.azadiradio.com/a/26797083.html (accessed on April 30, 2022).
Hafez Mohammed and Mullins Creighton, The radicalization puzzle: A theoretical synthesis of empirical approaches to homegrown extremism, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 38, No. 11, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2015.1051375
Haqqani Husain, The ideologies of South Asian jihadi groups, Universitäts-und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt, 2005.
Harriet Allan, Glazzard Andrew, Jesperson Sasha Tumu, and Winterbotham Emily Sneha Reddy, “Drivers of violent extremism: Hypotheses and literature review”, Royal United Services Institute-London, 2015.
Hirshleifer Jack, The dark side of the force: Western Economic Association International 1993 presidential address, Economic Inquiry, Vol. 32, No.1, 1994.
Joya Omar and Payenda Khaled, “Effectiveness of Development Assistance in Afghanistan: Lessons from the World Bank Experience”, Policy Paper Series, Biruni Institute, 2021.
Joya Omar, Rougier Eric and Shome Saurabh, “Understanding the Drivers of Poverty in Afghanistan”, Technical Report, Biruni Institute, 2022.
Koubi Vally and Böhmelt Tobias, Grievances, economic wealth, and civil conflict, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 51, No. 1, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343313500501
Luehrs Christoff, Provincial Reconstruction Teams: A Literature Review, Prism, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2009.
Mesoy Atle, “Poverty and Radicalisation into violent extremism: a causal link”, NOREF Expert Analysis, 2013.
Morris Sharon, Stephenson James, Ciminelli Paul, Muncy Donald, Tod Wilson, and Al Nugent, “Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Afghanistan: An Interagency Assessment”, Department of State, Office of the Coordinator for Stabilization and Reconstruction, Washington, DC, 2006.
Muller Edward N., Income inequality, regime repressiveness, and political violence, American Sociological Review, Vol. 50, No. 1, 1985. https://doi.org/10.2307/2095339
Østby Gudrun, Polarization, horizontal inequalities and violent civil conflict, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 45, No. 2, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343307087169
Rahimi Lutfi, “Afghans’ hopes and grievances: An Individual/Community Level Analysis”, Policy Paper Series, Biruni Institute, 2021.
Rahimi Mujib Rahman, State Formation in Afghanistan: A Theoretical and Political History, Bloomsbury Publishing, 2017.
Regan Patrick M. and Norton Daniel, Greed, grievance, and mobilization in civil wars, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 49, No. 3, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002704273441
Robins Philip K., A comparison of the labor supply findings from the four negative income tax experiments, Journal of Human Resources, 1985. https://doi.org/10.2307/145685
Rudolph Ulrich, al-Māturīdī and the Development of Sunnī Theology in Samarqand, Brill, 2014.
Semple Michael, “Rhetoric, ideology, and organizational structure of the Taliban movement”, Peaceworks No. 102, United States Institute of Peace, 2014.
Shahrani Nazif, Modern Afghanistan: The impact of 40 years of war, Indiana University Press, 2018.
Sharifi Arian, “Islamist groups in Afghanistan and the strategic choice of violence”, Peace Brief 216, United States Peace Institute, 2016.
Shivamurthy Aditya Gowdara, “Mobilising to a Victorious Insurgency: Locating Identity, Grievance, and Greed in the Taliban’s Strategy”, Issue Brief 521, Observer Research Foundation, 2022.
Shomali Alireza and Boroujerdi Mehrzad, “On Sadi’s Treatise on Advice to the Kings”, in: Mirror for the Muslim Prince: Islam and the Theory of Statecraft, Mehrzad Bourojerdi (ed.), Syracuse University Press, 2013.
Sly Liz, “The hidden hand behind the Islamic State militants? Saddam Hussein’s”, Washington Post, April 4, 2015. Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-hidden-hand-behind-the-islamic-state-militants-saddam-husseins/2015/04/04/aa97676c-cc32-11e4-8730-4f473416e759_story.html (accessed March 14, 2023).
Stewart Frances, Horizontal inequalities and conflict: Understanding group violence in multiethnic societies, Palgrave Macmillan, London, 2016.
Suhrke Astri, “Lessons from Bonn: Victors’ Peace?”, in: Incremental Peace in Afghanistan, Anna Larson and Alexander Ramsbotham (ed.), Accord: Issue 27, Conciliation Resources, London, 2018.
Waldman Matt, “Dangerous Liaisons with the Afghan Taliban: The Feasibility and Risks of Negotiations”, Special Report 256, United States Institute of Peace, Washington DC, 2010.
“Council of Ulema: Suicide attacks have no Islamic basis and are impermissible (Title transfer from Farsi)”, Deutsche Welle, June 04, 2018. Available at: https://p.dw.com/p/2yuS1 (accessed on April 30, 2022).
“Preventing violent extremism through promoting inclusive development, tolerance and respect for diversity: A development response to addressing radicalization and violent extremism”, UNDP, New York, 2016.
“The Development Response to Violent Extremism and Insurgency: Putting Principles into Practice”, USAID, Washington DC, 2011.
